According to a new MRP survey, Reform UK will defeat the Conservatives by 18 seats and by a greater percentage of the vote in the general election. If the results were repeated on July 4, Nigel Farage, Richard Tice, and Lee Anderson would all win seats, with Reform’s predicted vote share of 17%, two points ahead of the Conservatives’ 15%.
According to the nearly 20,000-person survey, Sir Ed Davey will lead the opposition and the Tories will fall to third place behind the Liberal Democrats. A survey by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, which was carried out from June 14 to 24, also predicted that Labor will secure a sizable majority.
The Liberal Democrats were predicted to take 71 seats, 11 more than the Conservatives on 60, a decrease of 305 from the 365 seats they secured in 2019. That would be the worst election result for the Conservatives since 1900.
Many top ministers, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, and Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden, would lose their jobs along with Rishi Sunak. Many Conservatives who were expected to lose their seats in the case of an election defeat were also predicted to contest for party leadership. They include the Leader of the Commons, Penny Mordaunt, and the Business Secretary, Kemi Badenoch. The Home Secretary James Cleverly, the Security Minister Tom Tugendhat, and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott are among the senior Conservatives who are expected to weather the Labor landslide.
Reform campaigning for votes
Another mega-poll is just out, according to Rupert Lowe, the former Ukip MEP who was expected to win in Great Yarmouth. Reform takes home 18 seats. And one of them is Great Yarmouth. It is a waste of vote to support the Conservatives here. Labor can only be defeated by Reform. “Select reform, obtain reform!”
According to Electoral Calculus inventor Martin Baxter, the Conservatives are expected to finish third in terms of both votes and seats. For them, that would be disastrous. With almost one million less votes than Jeremy Corbyn received in 2017, labor appears to be headed for a large landslide.
